마이크로컨트롤러(컨트롤러, MCU 등 다양한 이름으로도 불림)는 현대 자동차를 구성하는 중추적인 부품입니다. 자동차의 동력이 가솔린, 디젤, 전기, 수소, PDG 등 어떤 것이든 상관없이 자동차의 기능은 컨트롤러에 크게 좌우됩니다. 이러한 컨트롤러의 공급이 부족할 경우 자동차 산업이 무릎을 꿇을 수 있다는 사실도 확인되었습니다. 

IDTechEx의 보고서인 "자율주행 및 전기차용 반도체 2023-2033"에 따르면 현재 자동차 컨트롤러 분야에서 더 많은 연산 능력과 새로운 차량 아키텍처 옵션을 제공하기 위해 많은 움직임이 일어나고 있는 것으로 나타났습니다. 컨트롤러로 이러한 트렌드를 거스르고 있는 기업 중 한 곳이 바로 Tesla입니다.

 

레벨 2 ADAS가 장착된 테슬라와 유사한 전기 자동차에 사용되는 반도체 웨이퍼 비용 비중. Source: IDTechEx

 

Tesla는 Model S부터 컨트롤러를 설계하기 시작했지만, Model S의 컨트롤러 중 20%만 사내에서 설계되었습니다. 이 비율은 수년에 걸쳐 증가하여 Model Y는 자체 설계 컨트롤러가 61%, 사이버트럭은 85%까지 올라갔습니다. 

Tesla는 2023년 투자자의 날 프레젠테이션에서 차세대 차량에는 100% 자체 설계된 컨트롤러가 탑재될 것이라고 발표했습니다. 컨트롤러 설계를 완전히 자체 개발하는 것의 장점 중 하나는 Tesla가 와이어링 하네스 설계에 대한 완전한 자율성을 확보할 수 있다는 것입니다. 이것이 생각보다 더 큰 이유입니다.
 
Tesla는 와이어링 하네스 감소 분야에서 업계를 선도하고 있습니다. 요즘 자동차에 탑재되는 전자장치의 양이 많아지면서 모든 부품이 서로 통신할 수 있도록 거의 무한대에 가까운 미로와 같은 배선이 있는 것은 당연한 일입니다. 그러나 큰 와이어링 하니스는 여러 가지 문제를 야기하는데, 우선 무게가 가장 큰 문제입니다. 

자동차의 길이가 몇 미터에 불과하더라도 여러 배선을 수백 번 연결해야 한다면 그 무게는 금세 늘어나게 되고, 최근의 차량에는 말 그대로 총길이가 수 마일에 달하는 하네스가 장착되기도 합니다. 5마일의 절연 구리 케이블은 무겁습니다. IDTechEx의 연구에 따르면 와이어링 하니스의 무게는 60kg이 넘을 수 있으므로 테슬라가 무게를 17kg이나 줄인 것은 인상적인 결과입니다.

대형 와이어링 하니스가 바람직하지 않은 또 다른 이유는 제작에 소요되는 인건비 때문입니다. 단일 와이어링 하네스에는 수백, 때로는 수천 개의 단자가 있습니다. 각각의 와이어를 자르고, 벗기고, 압착하고, 커넥터의 올바른 핀에 끼워야 하는데, 이 모든 작업을 수작업으로 수행해야 합니다.

이러한 작업은 고도의 손재주, 세심한 주의력, 경험, 기술이 필요한 까다로운 작업이므로 기계로 쉽게 복제할 수 있는 작업은 아닙니다.


컨트롤러 설계를 자체 기술로 도입함으로써 Tesla는 중앙 집중식 제어 아키텍처에서 로컬화된 아키텍처로 전환할 수 있었습니다. 중앙 집중식 아키텍처에서는 컨트롤러 하나 또는 소규모 컨트롤러 그룹이 차량 주변의 모든 장치와 통신해야 합니다.

예를 들어 차량의 반대편 끝에 5개의 디바이스 그룹이 있고 4m의 케이블이 필요하다고 가정해 보겠습니다. 예를 들어 각 장치에는 전원용 1개, 접지용 1개, CAN용 2개 등 최소 4개의 연결부가 있다고 가정해 보겠습니다. 따라서 이제 하나의 소규모 장치 그룹을 위해 20개의 전선과 80m의 케이블이 필요합니다.

로컬라이즈 된 아키텍처는 더 작은 컨트롤러가 이러한 디바이스들 사이에서 허브 역할을 한다는 것을 의미합니다. 차량의 중앙 컨트롤러에는 하나의 이더넷 연결이 있고 개별 디바이스에는 아주 작은 연결만 있습니다. 따라서 예를 들어 80m의 케이블을 40m로 줄일 수 있습니다.

 

 

컨트롤러 아키텍처를 변경하는 것 외에도 Tesla는 저전압 장치용 48V 아키텍처로 전환하여 더 많은 이점을 제공하고 있습니다. 48V 시스템 또는 저전압 시스템은 센서, 조명, 인포테인먼트 등 드라이브 트레인을 제외한 거의 모든 전자 부품에 전원을 공급하는 데 사용됩니다.

 

 

대부분의 차량은 보닛 아래에 있는 납산 배터리에서 전원을 공급받는 12V 시스템을 사용하는데, 이는 150년이 넘은 기술입니다. Tesla에 따르면, 차량 주변의 모든 보조 부하를 포함한 12V 시스템은 최신 차량에서 200 암페어 이상을 공급할 수 있어야 합니다.

그러나 전력은 전압에 전류를 곱한 값이므로 한쪽이 4배가 되면 다른 한쪽은 4분의 1로 줄어들 수 있습니다. 즉, Tesla의 48V 시스템은 차량 주변에 해당 전류의 4분의 1만 필요하므로 훨씬 더 얇은 케이블을 사용할 수 있습니다.
 
Tesla는 차량 설계 및 생산의 모든 측면을 끊임없이 최적화하는 것으로 명성을 쌓아왔습니다. IDTechEx는 완전히 내부에서 설계된 컨트롤러로의 전환과 48V 저전압 시스템의 채택이 Tesla의 차량 최적화 분야에서 더욱 인상적인 성과를 거두는 시작이 될 것이라고 생각합니다.

차량 전체에 걸쳐 컨트롤러를 완벽하게 제어할 수 있게 됨에 따라 Tesla는 아키텍처를 개선할 수 있는 더 많은 자유를 얻었을 뿐만 아니라 공급망에 대한 협상력도 강화할 수 있게 되었습니다. 자동차 업계는 코로나19 팬데믹 기간 동안 반도체 공급에 대한 민감성을 뼈저리게 깨달았습니다.

차량 컨트롤러가 공급되지 않아 많은 생산 라인이 멈춰 섰습니다. 컨트롤러 설계를 자체적으로 수행함으로써 Tesla는 이러한 장애에 덜 민감해졌으며, 칩을 신속하게 재설계하여 공급을 개선하거나 다른 반도체 파운드리에서 생산 능력을 확보하여 흐름을 이어갈 수 있었습니다.

지난 몇 년 동안 다른 OEM 업체들도 일부 반도체 칩 설계를 자체적으로 수행한다는 소식이 들려왔지만, Tesla는 100% 자체 설계로 기준을 높임으로써 선구자 역할을 하고 있습니다.
 
Tesla는 이전에 하드웨어 버전 2.5(HW2.5)에서 HW3로 전환할 때 이러한 강점을 입증한 바 있습니다. HW2.5의 중앙 자율주행 두뇌에는 2개의 엔비디아 파커 SoC(시스템 온 칩), 1개의 엔비디아 파스칼 GPU(그래픽 처리 장치), 1개의 인피니언 MCU(마이크로컨트롤러 유닛)로 구성된 4개의 칩이 탑재되었습니다.

 

반면, HW 3에는 두 개의 칩만 탑재되었는데, 두 칩 모두 14nm 공정을 사용하여 삼성에서 제조한 Tesla SoC였습니다. TSMC와 글로벌파운드리도 14nm 공정을 보유하고 있어 더 많은 옵션과 잠재적 공급이 가능하기 때문에 Tesla는 더 많은 협상력을 갖게 되었습니다.

또한 엔비디아는 팹리스이기 때문에 칩을 설계한 다음 테슬라와 같이 대형 파운드리에서 생산해야 하므로 공급망이 단축되어 테슬라의 비용 절감으로 이어질 가능성이 높습니다.

 

 

또한 Tesla는 더 많은 설계를 자체적으로 수행함으로써 2차 공급업체가 제공하는 것 이상의 기능을 지정할 수 있다고 말합니다. OEM이 상용 부품을 구매하면 당연히 타협이 따를 수밖에 없습니다.

티어 2의 칩 아키텍처는 가능한 한 시장성이 높고 많은 사람들의 요구를 충족하도록 고안됩니다. 이는 일반적으로 개인의 요구에 맞춰져 있지 않다는 것을 의미합니다. 설계 프로세스를 사내로 가져오는 것은 쉬운 일이 아니지만, 이제 Tesla는 Tesla만을 위해 설계된 칩을 만들 수 있습니다.

IDTechEx의 "자율주행 및 전기차용 반도체 2023-2033" 보고서에서는 기존 반도체 공급망에 대해 자세히 설명하고, 어떤 다른 OEM이 자체 컨트롤러 설계를 검토하고 있으며 그 이유를 설명합니다.
 
이 보고서는 마이크로컨트롤러에 초점을 맞추고 있지만, "자율주행 및 전기차용 반도체 2023-2033" 보고서는 ADAS, 자율성, LiDAR, 레이더, 카메라, 4G 연결, 5G 연결, 전기 파워트레인, MCU, SOC 등 자동차 전반에 걸친 반도체를 총체적이고 포괄적으로 다루고 있습니다.

SWOT

Strength

  • 국내 최대 생산량
  • 이차전지와 그린에너지를 아우르는 시장
  • 국내 업체 중 가장 먼저 세계 곳곳에 리사이클 파크 설립 중
    • '22년 7월 조지아주에도 현지 법인 설립을 완료하고 스티븐스 카운티 토코아(Stephens County Toccoa) 지역에 8만1000㎡ 규모의 부지를 확보해 리사이클링 파크 설립을 진행 중 (링크)
    • 올해 5월 인디애나주에 ‘성일 리사이클링 파크 인디애나(SungEel Recycling Park Indiana)’ 법인 설립을 완료 후 미국 인디애나주에 사업부지를 선정

Weakness

  • 저가인 탄산리튬만 판매하는데 수산화리튬은 언제부터?
  • 헝가리 공장 잇단 사고 및 사망 사고에 따른 공장 가동 중지, 여론 악화 (링크)
    • 삼성 sdi lg 에너지솔루션 생산 중인 폐베터리 물량 소화 못하는 중
  • 폐배터리 산업, 기본적으로 고물상과 다를바 없는 반환경적 산

 

Opportunity

  • IRA, 미국에서 재활용된 전기차 배터리 소재에는 원산지와 무관하게 자동으로 미국산으로 간주하여 보조금을 지급해주는 특혜 (링크)

Threat

  • 진입이 쉽지는 않은지 경쟁사가 늘어나고 있는데 어떻게 대응할 건지?
    -> 블랙파우더 획득하려면 리사이클센터의 멀티 플레이스 준공 필요 < 파이낸싱 능력?

 

 

[연준와처] 6월1일 발표된 연준 대차대조표에 어떤 내용이 담겨 있나?

  •  양영빈 기자
  •  승인 2023.06.05 15:22

긴급 유동성공급으로 대차대조표 4000억달러 확대
연준 자산 은행위기 직전 수준까지 떨어져
5월 31일 국채 6240억달러, MBS 1490억달러 감소
브리지뱅크론 줄고 있어 은행위기 수그러지는 중
지급준비금 감소+ON RRP 감소+TGA 증가 예상돼

[이코노미21 양영빈] 6 1(현지시간) 연준의 대차대조표가 발표됐다. 3월초에 있었던 은행위기가 연준 대차대조표에 미쳤던 영향과  이후 대차대조표의 변화를 보면서 현재 상태를 점검해 보자.  

대차대조표 전체 크기

연준은 은행위기가 시스템 전체로 확대되는 것을 막기 위해 긴급 유동성 공급을 했고  결과 연준의 대차대조표는 4000억달러 가깝게 확대됐다. 2022 6 이후 연준이 매달 실시하는 양적긴축 규모는 대략 750~800억달러 수준이므로 2주만에 공급된 긴급 유동성은 5개월치의 양적긴축에 해당한다.

아래는 연준 대차대조표의 전체 크기(총자산) 추이를 보여준다.

출처=연준(fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=15JDY)

연준의 자산이 은행위기 직전 수준까지 떨어졌음을   있다. 연준의 대차대조표 크기가 감소한 것은 첫째, 양적긴축에 의한 것이고 둘째, 은행위기 당시 공급했던 긴급 유동성 회수가 있다.

양적긴축 효과

연준은 기존의 계획대로 꾸준하게 양적긴축을 하고 있다. 연준의 양적긴축은 연준이 보유한 국채, MBS 감소시키는 방식으로 이루어 진다. 연준은 국채, MBS 보유한 계정을 따로 관리하는데 이것을 SOMA(System Open Market Account) 계정이라고 부른다. 또한 연준은 만기가 도래한 국채, MBS 롤오버하지 않고 그대로 만기 정산을 받는 방식으로 양적긴축을 진행한다.

2022 6 양적긴축을 시작한 이래 연준의 SOMA 계정에서 국채와 MBS 보유 추이를 보면 다음과 같다.

5 31일까지 국채는 6240억달러, MBS 1490억달러가 감소했다. 국채와 MBS 월별 감소 추이를 보면 다음과 같다.

국채의 감소 목표 최대치인 600억달러는  지켜지고 있고 MBS 최대 목표치가 350억달러지만 보통 150~200억달러 정도로 줄어들고 있다. MBS 감소 최대 목표치에  미치는 것은 연준은 여전히 수동적(passive) 양적긴축을 하기 때문이다.

미국의 가계가 대출한 모기지는 금리가 매우 낮을  계약한 고정금리 모기지라서 지금처럼 고금리 시기에는 가계가 기존의 모기지를 새로운 모기지로 갈아탈 이유가 없다. 연준이 모기지(MBS) 감축 목표를 350억달러로 설정한 것은 과거 경험으로 예상한 기존의 모기지에서 새로운 모기지로 옮기는 것을 고려한 수치이다.

그러나 급격한 금리 상승으로 인해 기존이 모기지를 그대로 유지하려는 경향이 매우 높기 때문에 연준은 만기가 도래하는 모기지(MBS) 대차대조표에서 덜어내고 있다.

긴급 유동성 추이

은행위기가 시스템 전체로 확대되는 것을 사전에 방지하기 위해 연준은 짧은 시간 동안 4000억달러에 달하는 긴급 유동성을 지원했다. 긴급 유동성에는 전통적인 재할인 창구, BTFP, 해외 금융기관을 위한 FIMA Repo, 그리고 파산한 은행을 인수하는데 필요한 브리지뱅크 론이 있다.

다음은 네가지 긴급 유동성 지원의 추이를 보여준다.

출처=연준(fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=15JF6)

긴급유동성 지원이 한창이었을 때는 4037억달러에 달했고 5 31일에는 2857억달러로 감소했다. 전체적으로 고점대비 1180억달러가 감소했다. 해외 금융기관에 지원한 FIMA Repo 재할인 창구를 통해 지원한 것은 현재는 거의 0 가깝다.

재할인 창구와 성격은 같지만 조건이 다른 BTFP 여전히 늘어나고 있다. BTFP 늘어나 가장  이유는 재할인 창구에 비해 조건이 훨씬 좋기 때문이다. 같은 담보물을 제공해도 받을  있는 자금이 많고 금리도 싸기 때문이다. 6 1 기준으로 재할인창구(Primary Credit) 금리는 5.25%이고 BTFP 금리는 5.15%이다.

출처=연준재할인창구(https://www.frbdiscountwindow.org/)

문제가  은행의 인수절차를 위해 공급한 브리지뱅크론이 더디긴 하지만 줄어들고 있어 은행위기는 점차 수그러지고 있는 것으로 보인다.

마지막으로 재무부가 연준에 보유한 재무부일반계정의 잔고는 다음과 같다.

현재 TGA 잔고는 485억달러로 최저 수준에 있다. 다행히도 부채한도 협상이 최종적으로 상원을 통과해 다음 주부터는 단기적으로 TGA 급격한 증가와 지급준비금의 감소를 예상할  있다.

지급준비금의 증감은 연준의 대차대조표와 관계가 있는 주체들인 은행, MMF 행동방식과 밀접한 관계가 있다. 부채한도 협상 타결 이후 대규모의 국채 발행이 예상된다.

은행에 자금을 예치한 민간이 추가로 발행된 국채를 매입하면 은행 예금을 인출해서 TGA 계좌로 송금하는 결과를 가져온다. 이런 경우에는 지급준비금 감소(예금인출로 인한 감소) TGA 증가 예상된다.  

그러나 대규모로 발행된 국채의 수익률이 ON RRP 수익률보다 높아지면 MMF ON RRP 자금을 인출해서 TGA계좌로 송금하게 된다. 이런 경우에는 ‘ON RRP 감소와 TGA 증가 나타나게 된다. 현재 1개월 국채의 수익률은 5.25%이고 ON RRP 수익률은 5.05%이므로 수익률 차이가 20bps이다.

따라서 종합적으로 보면 지급준비금 감소(민간의 국채매입)+ON RRP 감소(MMF 국채 매입)+TGA 증가 예상된다. [이코노미21]

 

TSLA earnings call for the period ending December 31, 2023.

IMAGE SOURCE: THE MOTLEY FOOL.

Tesla (TSLA -0.63%)
Q4 2023 Earnings Call
Jan 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:


Martin Viecha

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's fourth-quarter 2023 Q&A webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of investor relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the update that we published at the same link as this webcast.

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. [Operator instructions] But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

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Elon.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Thank you. So, the Tesla team did an incredible job in 2023. We achieved a record production and deliveries of over 1.8 million vehicles, in line with our official guidance. And in Q4, we're producing vehicles at an annualized run rate of almost 2 million cars a year.

This was really a phenomenal achievement. Looking at just the Fremont Factory alone, we made 560,000 cars. This is a record. In fact, it's the highest-output automotive plant in North America.

And people are often surprised that the -- the highest-output factory -- car factory in North America is in the San Francisco Bay area. It's a little counterintuitive, perhaps. And the -- it's really had an incredibly positive impact on that entire area. What would have been a rundown strip mall is the highest-productivity car plant in the -- in the Americas.

Think about that. It was derelict when we -- when we got it, and now, it's the most productive plant in this -- in this entire part of the world, and it's enriched the community in so many different ways. It's -- it's really a gem. So, I'm super proud of the people that work there.

Model Y became the best-selling vehicle globally as predicted, and the best-selling vehicle of any kind, not just electric vehicles, with over 1.2 million units delivered. The energy storage business delivered nearly 15 gigawatt hours of batteries in 2023, compared to 6.5 gigawatt hours the year before. So, tremendous year-over-year growth, triple digits. And, yeah, I think we'll continue to -- continue to see very strong growth in -- in storage as -- as predicted.

I -- I said for many years that the storage business would grow much faster than the car business, and it is doing that. Free cash flow remains strong at 4.4 billion in 2023 in spite of record spending on future projects. So, we had record capex, expenses, as well as record R&D. Now, this brings us to 2024.

There's a lot to look forward to in 2024. Tesla is currently between two major growth waves. We're focused on making sure that our next growth wave driven by next-gen vehicle, energy storage, full self-driving, and other projects is executed as well as possible. For full self-driving, we've released version 12, which is a complete architectural rewrite compared to prior versions.

This is end-to-end artificial intelligence. So, another bit in that, basically photons in and controls out, and it really is a -- quite a profound difference. This is currently just with employees and a few customers, but we will be rolling out to all who -- all those -- all customers in the U.S. who request a full self-driving in the weeks to come.

That's over 400,000 vehicles in North America. So, this is the first time AI is being used, not just for object perception, but for path planning and vehicle controls. We replaced 330,000 lines of C++ code with neural nets. It's really quite remarkable.

Sort of as a side note, I think Tesla is probably the -- probably the most efficient company in the world for AI inference. Out of necessity, we've -- we've actually had to be extremely good at getting the most out of hardware because Hardware 3, at this point, is several years old. So, I don't I think we're -- we're quite far ahead of any other company in the world in terms of AI inference efficiency, which is going to be a very important metric in the future and in many arenas. So, see, the new Model 3 is now available globally.

So, we did an update on our Model 3. While the car looks similar, a lot of work has gone into the vehicle to make it better in every way. It is significantly quieter, more refined, better equipped, has longer range, and many other improvements, and I recommend taking it for a test drive. If you have not driven a Model 3 in a long time, you should really try the new one.

So, steady improvements. And we're very far along on our next-generation low-cost vehicle. This is an earnings call, not a product announcement, so there not be many questions that try to ask us about new product -- new products coming. But -- but we reserve product announcements for -- product announcements on our earnings calls.

So -- but we're very excited about this. And this is really going to be profound, not just in the design of the vehicle itself, but in the design of the manufacturing system. This is a revolutionary manufacturing system, significant, you know, far more advanced than any other automotive manufacturing system in the world, like, by -- by a significant margin. Several years ago, I said the -- the -- the -- perhaps the most important competitive characteristic of Tesla in the future will be manufacturing technology.

And you will really see that come to bear with our next-gen vehicle. The first manufacturing location for this will be at our Gigafactory and headquarters in Austin, Texas. And then, we'll follow that up with other locations around the world. Probably our -- the factory that will be built in Mexico will be second, and then we'll be looking to identify a third location, perhaps, by the end of this year or early next outside of North America.

So, in conclusion, we had a great year with record production, record deliveries, and a strong free cash flow in spite of a very high-interest rate environment. And we are focused on exciting new projects that will, I think, ultimately, if we execute on all these things and it is very hard to do all these things, not a -- not a sure thing, but I do see a path where Tesla could one day be the most valuable company in the world. I do want to emphasize that is not an easy path but a very difficult one, but it is now on the set of possible outcomes. And previously, I would not have thought that it is in the set of possible outcome.

So -- and thank you again to all of our investors, our employees, and our suppliers for a strong year, and looking forward to a great 2024 and years to come. Thank you.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. And our CFO, Vaibhav, has some opening remarks as well.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone. As Elon mentioned, we had a record year in terms of both production and deliveries for auto business, as well as record deployments in our energy business. This was achieved despite 2023 being a challenging year in terms of higher interest rates and higher inflation.

Big thanks to our customer for being with us through this challenging period. I would also like to thank the whole Tesla team for the resolve and dedication throughout. In terms of 2023 financials, we ended the year with over 96 billion of revenue and generated 4.4 billion of free cash flow to end the year with over 29 billion of cash and investments on hand. Our 2023 GAAP net income was impacted by the recognition of one-time, noncash benefit of 5.9 billion from the release of valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets.

This was due to our recent history of sustained profitability and is similar to several other companies who have recently gone through a similar change in their accounting. Accordingly, starting with Q1, our book tax rate will now be more in line with other companies in the S&P 500. In our vehicle business, we continue to see improvements in our per unit costs despite us being in the early phase of Cybertruck rollout. As a result, our auto gross margin improved sequentially.

That said, predicting auto gross margins is extremely challenging since there are many moving parts to this equation, some of which are out of our control, like the change in tariffs or local incentives, to name a few. While the teams are focused on cost reductions, we are approaching the limits within our current platforms. On the demand front, as promised, we made investments in digital campaigns in 2023. We fully appreciate the importance of customer education as we are still in a customer acquisition phase.

Our data suggests that around 90% of our vehicle buyers in 2023 never owned a Tesla before. We are being creative in figuring out ways to bring in new customers and educate them about the benefits of owning a Tesla versus gas-powered vehicles, the key among them being total cost of ownership. This concept is mostly overlooked for just the upfront costs. We will be rigorous in evaluating our campaigns, curating the content, and optimizing spend accordingly to support the overall demand.

There are two additional things I would like to mention as it relates to the U.S. market. First, for customers who qualify for the IRA buyer credit, we now offer that as a point-of-sale benefit for Model Y, which means an immediate reduction of 7,500 at the time of purchase to the end customer. Secondly, we continue to offer very attractive lease rates for Model 3 and Y using a partner leasing program.

Note that the sales under this program are recognized as upfront revenue and reported within automotive sales. Our energy storage business had another record year with deployments more than doubling and revenues increasing by more than 50%. This business is poised to again surpass our auto business in terms of growth rate in 2024. This has been in the works for quite some time with us laying the foundation a few years back by building our Mega Factory in Lathrop.

I would like to thank the whole Tesla Energy team for their efforts to make this a reality. Our services and other businesses also started contributing meaningfully to our results and our fleets -- as our fleet grows as we expect the fleet-based revenues from supercharging, used cars, and services to continue to increase. For 2024, our focus is to continue growing our output, continuing our cost reduction efforts, and increasing investments in our future growth initiatives. Accordingly, we are currently expecting our capital expenditure for 2024 to be in excess of 10 billion.

We believe this would be critical in helping us lay the foundation for the next phase of growth. Once again, I would like to thank everybody at Tesla, our investors, and our suppliers for being with us in this journey. We can open it up to questions, Martin.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. Let's go through investor questions. Question number one is from Michael: Given that you move the start of the next-generation compact vehicle production to Austin, has the timeline improved so that we might see the next-generation platform vehicles in 2025?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

We -- I mean, I won't certainly say -- say things with -- they should be taken with a grain of salt since I'm often optimistic. But, you know, I don't want to blow your minds, but I'm often optimistic regarding time. But our current schedule says that we will start production toward the end of 2025, so sometime in the second half. That's just what our current schedule says.

There's a lot of -- a lot of new technology, like, a tremendous amount of new, revolutionary manufacturing technology here. The reason I want to put the -- this -- this new, revolutionary manufacturing line at Giga -- at Giga Texas was because we really need the engineers to be living on the line. This is not -- this is not sort of a off-the-shelf, you know, just -- just works type of thing. And it's just a lot easier for Tesla engineering to live on the line if it's in Austin versus elsewhere.

So -- but -- but we are currently expecting to start production second half next year. That -- that -- that will be a challenging production ramp. Like, as I can -- I will be sleeping on the line practically. In fact, not practically; we will be.

But I am confident that once it is going, it will be head and shoulders above any other manufacturing technology that exists anywhere in the world, it's next level. So, it's always difficult to predict what that S-curve of manufacturing looks like. So, it always starts off real slow, and then it grows exponentially. So -- and predicting that intermediate S-curve is difficult, but, you know -- so, I don't know.

It's hard to say what the unit volume would be next year. We're not going to make any predictions on that front, but it does seem quite likely that we will start production next year.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. The next question is from Michael again: What has been the barrier to ramping 4680 cells into multimillion cells per week wraith? And when do you expect to get there?

Unknown speaker

Yeah. First, I just want to allay any concerns regarding 4680 limiting the Cybertruck ramp because I've seen some people commenting about that. To date, 4680 production is ahead of the ramp with actually weeks of finished cell inventory, and the goal is to keep it that way, not only for Cyber, but for our -- our future vehicle programs. And as Elon said, it is an S-curve here too. Like, it's -- it's hard to -- to predict these things, but I'm just describing our goals.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

It's a hard problem.

Unknown speaker

Yeah.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Like, there are entire companies where all they do is make battery cells. That's, like, the -- all they do.

Unknown speaker

Indeed. Indeed.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

We do a lot of other things. And we got a lot -- we got a lot of, you know, breakthrough technologies that -- that take time to figure out with 46 -- it's not just that it's a 46-millimeter diameter by 80-millimeter cell, that -- that's just the -- that's just the dimensions. There's tremendous amount of new technology in the cell, and so...

Unknown speaker

And manufacturing techniques.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yes, exactly.

Unknown speaker

And just regarding what the team was able to do in Q4, Texas successfully swapped line 1 from the Model Y design of the cell to the Cybertruck design of the cell, which was the 10% cell energy increase I've mentioned before. And as with any major new product introduction, the factory and engineering teams collaborated to ensure quality of the new design, and the process changes as their first priority. And now, our focus returns to cost and production ramp in Q1. And in terms of what we're doing, we're currently running one production line, one assembly line, using two assembly lines in addition for yield and rate improvement trials. And we have a fourth in commissioning, and four more will be installed starting in Q3 this year.

So, definitely, this is a big year for ramping 4680.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

But we also do want to emphasize that we can -- we also expect to ramp orders from our suppliers.

Unknown speaker

Yup.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

So, this is not about replacing our suppliers; it's about supplementing our suppliers.

Unknown speaker

Yes.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

So, we are very appreciative of our suppliers. You know, Panasonic, obviously, is our longest, supplier. They're an amazing company. You know, we -- we've got CATL , we got, LG, you know, and BYD.

Unknown speaker

Yeah.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. The next question is from Adam: Should retail shareholders be concerned that Elon has -- should the retail shareholders be concerned that Elon has stated that he is uncomfortable expanding AI and robotics at Tesla if he doesn't have 25% of voting?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, I guess. Let me explain why. What my -- my concern is here, which is that, you know, I see a path to creating an artificial intelligence and robotics juggernaut of truly immense capability and power. And my concern would be I don't want to control it, but if I have so little influence over the company at that stage that I could sort of be voted out by some sort of random shareholder advisory firm.

You know, we've had a lot of challenges with Institutional Shareholder Services, ISS -- I call them ISIS -- and Glass Lewis, you know, which there's a lot of activists that basically infiltrate those organizations and have, you know, strange ideas about what should be done. So, you know -- so, I want to -- I want to have enough to be influential -- like, if we could do a dual -- dual-class stock, that would be ideal. I'm not looking for additional economics; I just want to be an effective steward of very powerful technology. And the reason I just sort of roughly picked approximately 25% was that that -- that's -- that's not so much that I can control the company even if I go bonkers. And if I'm, like, mad, they can throw me out, but -- but it's enough that I have a strong influence. That's -- that's what I'm aiming for is a strong influence but not control.

There's some way to achieve that, that would be great.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. The next question is: What is your expectation for automotive gross margin ex-regulatory credits for the full year?

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Like I said in my opening remarks, we're focused on reducing the cost of our vehicles. This is very extensive and involved exercise where we -- whereby we look at not just the component cost down to -- but down to the packaging used to get the materials to the production floor. Each element of the cost is scrutinized to optimize further. A few pennies saved at the subcomponent level, whether through engineering redesign or for many other things which I mentioned, leads to cost reduction. This is a constant exercise, and we just have to chase down every penny possible.

We have a strong team which is hyper-focused on this. However, this is a very difficult thing to predict precisely because there are a lot --

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

I don't know, we don't have a crystal ball, so it's difficult for us to predict this with precision. If the -- if the interest rates come down quickly, I think margins will be good. And if they don't come down quickly, they won't be that good, yeah. It's always important to remember that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment.

It's not that people don't want -- we have tons of -- we have lots of people who want to buy our car but simply cannot afford it. And so -- and that -- as that -- as interest rates drop and that monthly payment drops, then they're able to afford it and they buy the car. It's pretty straightforward. And there are no tricks around -- to get around this.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

Martin Viecha

OK. Thank you. The next question is: Does the company anticipate a 50% volume CAGR to be realized in either 2024 or 2025? If not, why not?

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, as we've said in our prior guidance, there will be periods where we won't be growing at the same rate as before. We are between two major growth waves. The first one began with the global expansion of Model 3 and Y, and we believe the next one will be initiated with the next-generation platform. In 2024, our volume growth will be, you know, lower, as we have said, because we're trying to focus the team on the launch of the next-generation vehicle.

Martin Viecha

All right. Thank you very much. The next question is from Michael: When will Tesla start construction on the Giga Nevada expansion and Giga Mexico? And when can we expect each of these to produce their first products, such as 4680 cells, semi, and the next-gen vehicles?

Unknown speaker

We have recently broken ground for the next phase of Giga Nevada expansion to incorporate semi and other projects. But as I said earlier, as regarding Mexico, we want to first demonstrate success with the next-generation platform in Austin before we start construction. Therefore, we have started the long-lead work to get the basics ready and plan to follow our recipe from the 3Y ramp with Shanghai, where we started with learnings from Fremont and ramped really quickly.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah. Yeah, exactly. It's important to emphasize that -- I mean, Model 3 production was -- was three years of hell, honestly, before. Some of the really worst years of my life, frankly.

I still have mental scar tissue from that -- from those three years, as do many.

Unknown speaker

Yeah.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

But then -- and then, Model Y was, you know, somewhat of a variant on Model 3, so much -- a much easier situation. And then, we were able to actually do an improved but slightly improved versions of -- in some cases, significantly improved versions of the Model Y production line in Shanghai and Berlin. And, you know, that's -- that's the right -- I think that's the sensible way to go about things is -- is kind of, you know, figure out the -- the core technology of the manufacturing line and then replicate it with improvements throughout the world, so.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. The next question from Michael is: Has there been any progress made with an FSD licensing agreement with another company?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

You know, I -- I -- I really think lots of car companies should be asking for FSD licenses. But -- and we've had -- we've had some tentative conversations, but I think they don't believe it's real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year. And I do want to emphasize that if I were CEO of another car company, I would definitely be calling Tesla and asking to license Tesla full self-driving technology. It's definitely the smart move.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. The next question from Siddharth: What is the timeline for Optimus first production of -- volume production line? And what are the barriers to getting there?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

You know, Optimus obviously is a -- is a very new product, an extremely revolutionary product. It's something that I think has the potential to -- the potential to far exceed the value of -- of everything else that Tesla combined. And when you think of an economy, economy is productivity per capita times capita. But what if there's no limit to capita? There's no limit to the economy. And -- and the technologies that -- the AI technologies were developed for the car translate quite well to a humanoid robot because the car is just a robot on four wheels.

You know, Tesla is arguably already the biggest robot maker in the world; it's just a four-wheeled robot. So, Optimus is a, you know, robot with a -- humanoid robot with arms and legs. It's by far the most sophisticated humanoid robot that's being developed anywhere in the world. I think we've got a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units next year. But like I said, this -- this is a brand-new product.

A lot of uncertainty is -- when you have -- when there's a lot of uncertainty and you're in uncharted territory, it's obviously impossible to make a precise prediction. But we will be updating the public with progress on Optimus, you know, every few months. And you can see that it's advancing very quickly. I was just in the Optimus lab, actually, until late last night. It's like midnight or something if I left the Optimus lab.

The team is doing amazing work. You know, that's obviously a case where we want to make sure that Optimus is safe, especially at scale and that there's no -- it should be impossible for any centralized control to upload malware to a humanoid robot. So, we're going to want to, well, then localize shut-off that cannot be updated from the -- from -- from a central server. That -- that's the case where we really have to give extreme thought to safety. But, like I said, I do think it has the potential to be the most valuable -- most valuable product of any kind ever, by far.

Unknown speaker

Just to comment on the barrier. I think the barrier, and we've talked about this, is like getting it to actually do something useful. Like -- like, we can get it to walk around, we can get it to do things, but it's, like, that utility part.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

We can already do some useful things.

Unknown speaker

But, like, you know, yeah, to making millions of these things, it's like utility -- kind of get the utility up.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, a smart robot that can do -- that's capable of doing generalized tasks is what it will be. And in terms of doing, you know, moderately specialized tasks, well, it can already do that, and it'll just get better through -- through the course of the year. As we improve the -- the technology in the car, we improve the technology in Optimus at the same time. It runs the same AI inference computer that's on the car, same training technology.

I mean, we're really building the future. I mean, the Optimus lab looks like the set of Westworld, but admittedly, that was not a super utopian situation.

Unknown speaker

Yeah, not the best reference.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah. The creators of Westworld, Jonathan Nolan, Lisa Joy Nolan, are friends -- are all friends of mine, actually. And I invited them to come see the lab and, like, well, come see it, hopefully soon. It's pretty well -- especially the sort of subsystem test stands where you've just got like one leg on a test stand just doing repetitive exercises and one arm on a test stand pretty well.

Yeah.

Unknown speaker

We're not entering Westworld anytime soon.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Right, right. Yeah. I take -- take safety very very seriously.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. The next question from Norman is: How many Cybertruck orders are in the queue? And when do you anticipate to be able to fulfill existing orders?

Unknown speaker

First of all, I want to thank all the Cybertruck reservation holders for their patience. The reservation -- reservation-to-order conversion rate so far has been very very encouraging. If the trend continues, as very likely to be, we will soon sold out all the builds in 2024. And also, you know, we have new orders coming after the launch.

The order numbers keep growing. So, we're now all hands on deck, focused on ramping so we can, you know, fulfill all the demands and reduce the wait time.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah. It's important to emphasize that this is very much a production-constrained situation, not a demand-constrained situation. And we -- you know, obviously, like, we could dramatically raise the price, but that -- that doesn't feel right to us to sort of, you know, gouge people for -- you know, for early delivery, so. But -- but really, the demand is off the hook. As long as -- as long as the price is affordable, I mean, I see us ultimately delivering on the order of a quarter million -- something like a quarter million Cybertrucks a year in North America, but maybe more, give or take, you know, roughly on that -- on that time frame.

And it's -- I mean, it's a -- it sure is a -- a head turner. Yeah.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

It definitely is.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Anywhere you go, people look at you.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

They give you a thumbs up.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah. It's -- it's, like, finally the future looks like the future.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

You know, just -- it just -- you know, for -- for the other trucks on the road there, which -- there's some very good trucks on the road, but if you were to switch out the brand name, you wouldn't hardly know which company made them. But you definitely would know the Cybertruck. That's our best -- that's our best product ever.

Martin Viecha

All right. Thank you. The next question is: Can we get Tesla Energy volumes reported in the production and delivery release?

Unknown speaker

Yeah, we will strive to do so starting from this quarter. And just a brief update from the business perspective: Megapack continues to see strong demand signals globally, driving consistent growth trajectory through '24 and '25. We want to thank all of our partners who have put their trust in the Megapack team to execute on critical infrastructure around the world. And I would like to personally thank the Megapack engineering and production teams for their strong 2023 execution. Lathrop continues to ramp through 2024, with the operation of a second final assembly line to double capacity from 20 to 40 gigawatt hours by the end of the year.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. And the last investor question is from Siddharth: What are the preliminary results on return on investment of your ads and education campaign? Given that many people still lack awareness, the Tesla average price is less than the average non-luxury car price of $45,000. Will you expand educational ads?

Unknown speaker

As Elon mentioned, the ultimate solution to increase EV adoption is really address the affordability issue. But at the same time, we're well aware there's awareness issue as well. So, in Q4, we ran a series of digital campaigns -- very targeted digital campaigns across different geos and different channels. The target of these tests is really just to drive awareness and ultimately measure the return on investment on those digital channels. And the messaging we're driving is really focused on our product and also try to address some of the misconception of the EV, such as safety, affordability.

In one particular awareness campaign we ran in Texas, we reached an audience, about 10 million unique viewers, and generated close to half a million visits to our website. A large number of these viewers are first-time visitors to our site. The traffic through these digital channels actually behave very similar to those organic traffic coming to our website. So, going forward, we're just going to keep exploring different channels and doing our trials to get a better understanding of the effectiveness of these digital campaigns.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

But I would also like to caution that we will be very careful that we don't want to overspend on this side. We want to make sure people are aware, but we'll -- that's where we'll keep tweaking our method -- methodology about how and where we spend the money because we understand the importance of increasing awareness, but at the same token, we don't want to spend a lot of money on just creating awareness.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah. I mean, we also have geographies where our market share is remarkably low, like Japan, for example. Now, we obviously need to make sure that we have superchargers in the right locations and the service centers are there, and the product works well in Japan. Japan is the third-largest car market in the world of any country.

So -- and we should at least have a market share proportionate to, say, other non-Japanese carmakers like Mercedes or BMW, which we do not currently have. So, I think that's the case. And when I talk to friends of mine in Japan, they're like -- they're like -- there is, like, quite a lack of awareness of Tesla. So, you know, that's the case where we -- we definitely need to increase awareness in countries and regions where there is, yeah, not -- not that much awareness.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. Let's go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research. Pierre, go ahead, please. You're free to unmute.

Pierre, can you hear us?

Pierre Ferragu -- New Street Research -- Analyst

OK, wow, it's really tough to find the unmute button on -- on Teams, guys. I'm sorry for being late. So, yes, my question would be, you know, on, like, the cost reduction. You've talked about it already a lot.

And if I look at it over the last, like, five or six quarters on average, the COGS per car has been coming down, like, more than 2% sequentially, on average. So, that means you are, like, on a trajectory of COGS per car going down 10% a year. So, that's probably, like, unheard of in the auto industry. I don't think any car manufacturer ever achieved that. But that's very very mundane and very -- it's a good performance, but it's a very normal performance in a lot of other manufacturing industry like microelectronics or consumer electronics.

And so, I'd love to hear your thoughts about whether you consider yourself closer to the latter to like a microelectronics business, where you have this ability to actually always improve because you have more control on how things are pulled together into your cars and you see yourself sustainably taking costs down with that kind of pace. Or do you think your ability to -- to -- to take down costs is actually going to -- to become more, like, in line with the rest in the industry over time?

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think I've covered this in a pretty lengthy detail even in my opening remarks and in a previous question. But to just further clarify, we are constantly looking for what we can do to reduce costs. And like I said, it's a game of pennies. We've talked about it before as well.

And the team is constantly going and checking where can we reduce the cost further. And do I believe that we will have the same pace which you've seen over the past few years? Probably not because, remember, we were coming out with a period wherein commodity prices were rising. So, then, we did see benefits coming from that. So, those are, more or less, you know, taken care of.

But there is more, which we're still chasing. And, you know, I would say a big kudos goes to the team out here at Tesla, both the engineering team as well as the supply chain team, because every time we give them a challenge, they go -- they go gangbusters to try and figure out whatever they can to take out further cost. But, yes, I would -- like I said, I would want to caution that do not project the previous cost reduction at the same pace completely in the future because, with our current platform, we are getting to a place wherein, you know, there is -- there are limitations.

Unknown speaker

Yeah, and the increased scale also sort of helps us there. As we introduce new products, we have the opportunity to go renegotiate existing suppliers for better pricing. We're looking at every penny, like Vaibhav and Elon mentioned. Just to give you an example, our inbound logistics cost has come down by 22% year over year.

And this is because of optimization on -- on using returnable packaging as opposed to, you know, cardboard, which is even better for the environment; optimizing trucking routes; negotiating better pricing with shipping companies, with trucking companies; going with full truckloads; and just doing that sort of -- the bigger we become, the more we put far into these things and the more efficient we become as a result of it. So, those -- those workstreams are going to continue.

And we're also getting into the -- the tiers of supply chain to see where there are opportunities.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah.

Unknown speaker

Getting into the, you know, the tier 2, tier 3, tier 4 levels and then negotiate those pricing as well to get more efficiency out of the system.

And then, on the design side, we're not static, right? Like, especially in areas where the technology is still improving rapidly, power electronics is a great example, you know, we -- we continue to bring improvements there that are, like, fundamental, sort of driven from the device up that -- that -- that result in -- in cost reductions generation after generation. And they don't only go into the new vehicles; they come to the old vehicles as well. So, that -- that's closer to what you were talking about with, like, the microelectronics space. Some of that exists in the -- in the -- in the vehicle.

Certainly, our car is more computer than car in many ways and -- and has a lot of new tech over the last hundred years of automotive production that everyone kind of scrape pennies from.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

We have a crazy amount of compute in our cars compared to anyone else.

Unknown speaker

Yeah.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

It's like, where's the magnitude?

Unknown speaker

And we get to ride that down, right?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

A thousand times more, I don't know, some 90 number.

Unknown speaker

I mean, like, if I just look at the main microcontroller that makes the motor truck go, for example, like when we -- when I think about what it costs when we stuck it in a roadster in 2006 and what it costs now, it's like there's no comparison, you know. So, we've definitely been riding that electronics cost way.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah.

Unknown speaker

Then even on the, like, non, what you call, traditional vehicle side, we do things that no other automakers do to bring costs down through breaking down, you know, the way structures are built and, you know, the way we put our cars together. And I think that mindset that we have is very much closer to the microprocessor or power electronics industry than -- than the automotive industry.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. Pierre -- Pierre, do you have a follow-up?

Pierre Ferragu -- New Street Research -- Analyst

Yes, a quick one. It's, you know, you mentioned this, like, phase in which you are, between two -- two big, gross -- gross barriers. I'd love to hear you about, you know, what -- what you consider the size of your addressable market with the portfolio you have today, like the 3, the Y, the X, and the S? What's your estimate of your addressable market? You're shipping, like, probably about, like, a 2 million unit run rate today. And given the price points of these cars, what kind of market share on -- of what you address with these cars do you think you've already achieved today?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

I don't know if anybody -- I don't know -- I actually don't think we have a firm --

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Idea of this. It's hard to say exactly.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, this -- I won't say there's -- I mean, one way to think about it is look at the automotive industry as well. You know, EVs still contribute a very small market share. So, yes, our goal is to try and take as much market share out of that pie. But, you know, do I have a specific number to give you? I don't think we can say that with certainty.

Unknown speaker

And it's a growing pie as well.

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Exactly.

Unknown speaker

Like, it's 9% today, but it could be 20% in a couple of years or in the future.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah.

Unknown speaker

And certainly, like, the way we've looked at it, and we've always said this, it's not about, like, how many EVs we sell, how many great cars you can sell, how many vehicles you can sell. And that market's, you know, 100 million a year, and you know, we're barely 2% of that. I still think there's 98% more to get, you know.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

I mean, it's worth noting that if you look at, say, the -- the average selling price of the other top-selling vehicles in the world, they are much lower-priced than a Model Y.

Unknown speaker

Yeah.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

So, like, a Toyota Rav4 or Corolla, kind of Civic, you know, the kind of thing, they're much lower priced than ours. So, people are really stretching their -- their wallets to be able to afford a Tesla. It's -- it's quite a difficult thing for them to do. And remarkable that it's the best-selling car in unit volume despite being much more expensive than other high-volume cars.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. Let's go to the next analyst. The next question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

Adam Jonas -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Hey, everybody. So, I can't wait to see the Optimus lab. I'm sure everybody on this call feels the same way. Your last AI Day, Elon, was September 2022.

Can we expect a Tesla AI Day this year? It seems -- seems like a lot's changed in that -- in that realm, and is this year the time?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, that's a good question. We have found that when we do these AI days, some of our competitors, literally, look at what we do on a frame-by-frame basis.

Adam Jonas -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

They do.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

And -- and -- and then, we find these things being copied.

Unknown speaker

Same with Battery Day.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Same thing with Battery Day. So, we have to be a little cautious about, you know, revealing the exact recipe of the secret sauce. But I think some kind of update would be good to do. Well, I'll talk it over with the team, and yeah, I think what we'll -- we might do something later this year. I'm going to go with the -- these AI day things as recruiting, so.

Unknown speaker

Yes.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

And to sort of change the perception of Tesla as people think of Tesla as a car company when they should be thinking of Tesla as an AI robotics company.

Adam Jonas -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Mm hmm. Maybe as a -- as a follow-up, Elon, I'd love your thoughts on the topic of China-based OEMs expanding into Western markets as that -- as the China market kind of gets saturated and there's a tremendous growth in the supply. How much success should Tesla investors allow for this competition to achieve in Western markets? And can you envision a scenario where Tesla could -- could partner with a Chinese OEM -- OEM to help accelerate sustainable transport in markets like Europe and the United States? Thanks.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Well, our observation is generally that the -- the Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world. So, I think they will have significant success outside of China depending on what kind of tariffs or trade barriers are established. Frankly, I think if there are not trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other companies in the world. So, they're -- they're extremely good. If we don't see an obvious opportunity to partner, you know, somebody we're happy to -- you know, except on the supercharger front, we're obviously happy to give any electric car company access to our supercharger network.

We're also happy to license full self-driving, perhaps license other technologies and, you know, anything that could be helpful in advancing the sustainable energy revolution.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. And the next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays.

Dan Levy -- Barclays -- Analyst

Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking the -- the questions. First, I'm wondering if you can just walk through some of the gating factors required to unlock your next-gen platform.

You talked about a number of cost initiatives back at the Investor Day a year ago, things in manufacturing and -- and powertrain. Maybe you can just give us a sense of where these initiative stands. And do you believe -- we know that -- that there's a number of new features and technologies in Cybertruck, things like 48-volt architecture, really employing your 4680 batteries. To what extent do you think Cybertruck is really a proving ground for the next-gen platform and is really going to be a gating factor to unlocking the cost reductions needed for the next-gen platform?

Unknown speaker

Hmm, I don't see it that way.

Yeah, I don't -- I don't think that anything on Cybertruck should be considered gating for the next-gen platform. We're obviously doing a lot of manufacturing innovation, as Elon said, for our next-generation vehicle. You know, when you do something at that scale, you have to prove it out. You don't just throw it on the line and just build it.

So, we're going through those validation phases for all those new manufacturing technologies now. I'm sure 48-volt was definitely something we wanted to carry forward, you know, and it's something we hope the industry adopts as well. We're also open to partnering up on that if everyone wants to do that.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, man, the people that really know that this is like the inside baseball thing. But, man, it's so high time that the auto industry moved from 12 -- the random number of 12 to 48.

Unknown speaker

Random number of 48.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, well, it's much less random.

Unknown speaker

Slightly less random based on human injury.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

But, I mean, it dramatically reduces the amount of copper you need in the vehicle.

Unknown speaker

That's correct.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

And, you know -- and also moving to sort of higher-bandwidth communications, sort of Ethernet, you know, level communications versus Canvas, which is pretty --

Unknown speaker

Pretty slow.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Pretty slow. So, it's really just bringing cars to, you know --

Unknown speaker

The 21st century.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, pretty much.

Unknown speaker

So, like, certainly like it's not --

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

It's, like, normal for a laptop.

Unknown speaker

Yeah. Certainly bringing that, like, you know, is an evolution in our -- in our architectures of vehicles, but it's not gating by any means. The gating work is just to finish the design and manufacturing of the car, test them out, and get them kind of going.

Yeah. Programs and execution mode, right?

Yep.

Right. So, it's -- it's talking about like tooling lead time, manufacturing.

Factory lead time.

Yeah, factory lead time and executing those program.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

There's a lot of -- there's a lot of specialized machines that make the machine for our next-gen vehicle. So, these are not machines you can just order from anyone. They -- actually, you have to design a machine that has never existed to build a car in a way that has never existed.

Unknown speaker

Yeah. So, you don't just have, like, a design validation phase, but you have an equipment design validation phase as well.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah. It does make it very hard to copy us because you have to copy the machine that makes the machine that makes the machine.

Unknown speaker

That's -- talking about tiers.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

It's not -- yeah, yeah. It's, you know -- exactly. Manufacturing inception. So, you know, I do think it's a -- it's quite a powerful, sustainable advantage because there just is no place to go to order the machines that make the -- our next-gen car that don't exist.

Dan Levy -- Barclays -- Analyst

Great. Thank you. As a -- as a follow-up, your release does not mention Dojo, so if you can just provide us an update on where Dojo stands and at what point you expect Dojo to be a resource in improving FSD. Or do you think that you now have sufficient supply of Nvidia GPUs needed for the training of the system?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

I mean, the AI auto question is -- that is a deep one. So, we're obviously hedging our bets here with significant orders of Nvidia GPUs -- or GPUs is the wrong word. Really needs to be -- there's no -- it doesn't even -- it doesn't mean -- you can't, like, produce graphics. So, that's what's -- sort of a graphical processing unit, neural net processing unit or something like that.

Yeah, GPU is a funny -- funny word like vestigial, so. And a lot of our progress in self-driving is training limited. Something that's important with -- with training, it's much like a human. The -- the more effort you put into training, the less effort you need in advance.

So, just like a person, if you -- if you train in a subject, you know, sort of classic 10,000 hours, the -- the less mental effort it takes to do something. If you remember when you first started to drive, how much of -- of your mental capacity it took to drive. It was -- you had to be focused completely on driving. Then after you've been driving for many years, it only takes a little bit of your mind to drive, and you can think about other things and still drive safely. So, the more training you do, the more efficient it is at the inference level. So, we do need a lot of training.

And -- and we're pursuing the dual path of Nvidia and Dojo. But I would, you know, think of Dojo as a long shot. It's a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it's not something that is a high probability.

It's not like a sure thing at all. It's a high-risk, high-payoff program. The -- the Dojo is working and it is -- it is doing training jobs, so we are scaling it up. And we have plans for Dojo 1.5, Dojo 2, Dojo 3, and whatnot. So, you know, I think it's -- it's got potential, but the kind of size enough high risk, high payoff.

So, I think it still makes sense given the -- you know, even -- even if it's a low -- low probability of success for the very high -- I think -- anyway, I'm belaboring the subject. It's a very interesting program.

Unknown speaker

Yeah, it is.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

You know, it has the potential for worth something special. There's also our inference hardware in the car. So, we're -- we're now on what's called Hardware 4, but it's actually version 2 of the Tesla-designed AI inference chip. And -- and we're about to complete design of -- the terminologies are a bit confusing about the complete design of Hardware 5, which is actually version 3 of the Tesla design chip because the version 1 was Mobileye, version 2 was Nvidia, and then version 3 was -- was Tesla.

So -- and we're making gigantic improvements with -- from 1 -- from Hardware 3 to 4 to 5. I mean, there's a potentially interesting play where -- when cars are not in use in the future, that the in-car computer can do generalized AI tasks, can -- can run a sort of, you know, GPT 4 or 3 or something like that. You know, if you've got tens of millions of vehicles out there, even in a robotaxi scenario, whether in heavy use, maybe they're used 50 out of 168 hours. That still leaves, you know, well over 100 hours of time available of compute hours.

Like, it's possible with the right architectural decisions that Tesla made in the future have more compute than everyone else combined.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. And the next question comes from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Oh, great. Thanks for taking my questions. You know, as we're thinking about going into 2024, the press release talks about hitting 36,000 or slightly above in Q4. And the comments in the release talk about approaching the natural limits, and it sounds like you're continuing to try to whittle that away, but that sort of implies there's not much left.

In addition, you have the hourly wage increase. I guess we'll add to that into next year. And I thought you said raw material costs are -- kind of that benefit is sort of mostly played out. So, is there an opportunity to -- to continue to go below the 36, or should we kind of be modeling that it kind of stays at this level into '24?

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

You know, we are definitely aware of the cost increases, which are coming through because of the wage increases. But like I said, you know, we keep looking at other cost opportunities and try and figure out where else can we cut down. So, there is definitely more opportunity to bring down costs further. I won't specifically guide to our number, which we will try and get to, but there's definitely more opportunity there.

Unknown speaker

Yeah, we're chasing -- we're chasing lots of cost opportunities on the design side still for 2024, you know. North of eight figures is what we're -- you know, worth of -- just in my organization, largest got a bunch. And then, from a commodities perspective, it's such a long cycle time

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Long lead.

Unknown speaker

Through the whole material supply chain that even with what we've already seen to this point, there's more to come on -- on commodities reductions.

There's still some tailwind left on the commodity.

That's what I mean.

Yeah. Aluminum and steel.

Yeah. And battery materials.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

It boggles my mind to think that if we make a 1% improvement in cost, that's $1 billion.

Unknown speaker

Yeah. Yeah.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

So, it's like, on average, if we reduce the cost by one penny, $1 billion. What? You know, I mean, we started off -- you know, wasn't that long ago that we're only making, like, 10 cars a week and -- yeah, so. Where does it lead ultimately? You know, with good execution, like I said, it's not -- it's not a -- it's not a slam dunk. But with -- you know, if we execute very well, I think Tesla could be the most valuable company in the world.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. Colin, do you have a follow-up question?

Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Yeah, just a quick follow-up. In the commentary, you mentioned the taxes would go to the S&P 500 level. I think you've been trending slightly below 10% S&P. I think it's typically 25%-ish.

Is -- is that going to -- should we expect that to jump right up next year when we're modeling next year? Or would it be, like, gradual change over the next few years? And any cash impact from that tax change as well that we should be considering?

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, there's no impact on cash taxes access from -- from the release of the valuation amounts, which I spoke about. What it does is it's how you account for taxes on your book -- on your books. So, it's basically an accounting change, wherein, you know, there are certain jurisdictions because we had enough, you know, NOLs, etc., wherein we didn't have to accrue book taxes.

Now that the valuation allowance has been released and we have recognized deferred tax assets on the books, that means your tax rate immediately goes up.

Martin Viecha

OK. I think that's all the time we have for today. Thank you so much for all of your questions, and we'll speak to you again in three months. Thank you.

Bye-bye.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Thank you.

Duration: 0 minutes

Call participants:

Martin Viecha

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer

Unknown speaker

Pierre Ferragu -- New Street Research -- Analyst

Adam Jonas -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Dan Levy -- Barclays -- Analyst

Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

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SWOT

Strength

  • 단순 서플라이어 제공 부품 조립이 아닌 깊은 설계 이해도
  • 핵심 부품 설계 내재화 역량 보유
  • FSD의 압도적 경쟁 우의 (진짜인가?)

 

Weakness

  • 중국 내수 경기 악화에 따른 중국 판매량 감소
  • 중국 전기차 공급 과잉에 따른 구조조정 시작
    • 중국 전기차 생산 캐파 연4,900만대 中 가동율 59%
  • 미국 내 점유율 감소

 

Opportunity

  • 24년 신규 경차 출시 예정
  • BYD의 해외 진출 어려움 (링크) < 제조상의 결함이라기보다는 물류 관련 문제
    • 일본에 도착한 차량에는 긁힌 자국
    • 유럽에 도착한 차량에는 곰팡이
    • 태국 페인트와 플라스틱 벗겨짐에 대한 불만이 공개

Threat

  • 게기판 폰트 크기 이슈로 리콜 -> 소프트웨어 업데이트만 하면 되는데 큰 문제 될지?(링크)
  • 델라웨어 일론 머스크 패소 위험에 따라 주식 오버행 이슈
  • 트럼프 당선시 전기차 판매 감소 우려 존재하나, 현재 미국 전기차 침투율 8% 수준으로 되돌림 불가능한 상황이며 캘리포니아 필두로한 14개 州 전기차 판매 쿼터 지정하여 트럼프 이슈로 인한 판매량 급락 환경 조성 어려울 것
  • 독일과 같은 주요 전기차 수요국 및 미국 캘리포니아 주의 전기차 보조금 감소에 따라 전기차 수요 하락 전
  • 고금리 전망에 따라 car-loan 감소하고, 자동차 구매수도 감소

글로벌 전기차 시장 규모 추이

http://hkconsensus.hankyung.com/apps.analysis/analysis.downpdf?report_idx=626887
http://hkconsensus.hankyung.com/apps.analysis/analysis.downpdf?report_idx=620485

  • 12 월 유럽 전기차 판매량 증가율이 급감했으며, 미국도 성장률이 둔화됐다. 독일은 12 월 전기차 보조금 지급을 중단했고(기존 2024년 말까지 지급 예정), 미국 내 전기차 판매량의 30~40%를 차지하는 캘리포니아 지역에서도 11월부터 CVRP 지급이 중단 된 영향으로 판단된다. 유럽은 보조금 축소로 당분간 판매량 부진이 지속될 것으로 예상되나, 미국은 1) 2024 년부터 전기차 구매 즉시 IRA 보조금을 받을 수 있고, 2) VW/GM 등은 배터리 부품(분리막/전해액) 밸류체인 조정으로 IRA 보조금 대상 모델 수가 늘어나고 있으며, 3) CVRP를 대체할 CC4A 보조금으로 인해 판매량이 회복될 여지가 높다고 판단한다.(링크)

 

미국 전기차 시장 규모는?

https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicle-registration

 

미국 전체 차량 판매 및 전기차 판매량

  • 에너지국 조사에 따르면, '22년 미국 전체 전기차 대수는 2,442,300대이며, 그 중 캘리포니아의 전기차 대수 903,600대로 1위
    • 그러나, 1위인 캘리포니아 조차 전기차 보급률 2.5% 수준
    • Cox Automotive 회사인 Kelley Blue Book의 추산에 따르면 작년에 기록적인 120만 명의 미국 자동차 구매자가 전기차를 선택했습니다. 보다 구체적으로, 전기화된 미래로의 느린 전환이 줄어들지 않고 계속되면서 1,189,051대의 새로운 전기 자동차(EV)가 운행에 투입되었습니다.(링크)
  • 신규 구매자 中 전기차 구매비율은 '23년 4분기 8.12% 수준으로 지속 상승 중이나 최근 상승세 기울기 감소

미국 전기차 시장은 얼마나 축소되었는가?

미국 전체 차량 판매 대수: https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-usa-by-month#dec
미국 전체 차량 판매 대수: https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-usa-by-month#dec

 

미국 전기차 판매 대수: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales

  • 미국 전체 차량 판매는 월평균 130만대 규모이며 4분기 늘어나는 경향 보이는 반면, 전기차 판매량 꺾이는 모양새
    • 브랜드별 차량 판매량 (링크)
    • 모델별 차량 판매량 (링크)
  • '23년 분기별 판매량 25.8만대 > 29.5만대 > 31.3만대 > 31.7만대로 전분기 대비 성장률 하락하는 추세

자체제작

미국 전기차 시장이 축소되는 원인은 무엇인가? (vs 내연기관 자동차 시장)

높은 가격1: 보조금 받아먹기 까다롭고 앞으로 더 까다로워진다 feat. IRA

  • 지역별 보조금 관련 변화, 특히 매출 높은 지역
  • 매크로지표 하락에 따른 소비력 감소

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1379
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1379
https://www.poscochemical.com/pr/view.do?num=666

높은 가격2: 비싼 차값

  • CarGurus는 이러한 낮은 가격에도 불구하고 새로운 평균 EV 정가가 지난 달 휘발유 차량보다 28% 더 높았다고 말했습니다. 이는 새 EV에 대해 평균 8%에 가까운 이자율로 60개월 대출 비용이 휘발유 자동차보다 한 달에 277달러 더 비싸다는 것을 의미합니다.(기사)

높은 가격3: 의외로 비싼 유지비

  • 집에 충전기를 설치하는 데 드는 비용은 약 2,000달러 이며 일반적으로 보험 비용이 더 많이 듭니다.
  • 유지 관리 비용은 더 낮을 수 있지만, 더 무거운 EV를 사용하면 더 빨리 타이어를 더 많이 구입할 수 있습니다. 2월 초, EV는 처음 5년 동안 소비자에게 평균 65,202달러의 비용이 들었고, 휘발유 차량의 비용은 56,962달러라고 전국 자동차 딜러 협회(National Automobile Dealers Association)가 밝혔습니다 .
  • 허츠, 2만대 전기차 1/3 매각 결정
    • 전기 자동차는 유지 비용이 적게 들지만 손상 수리 비용이 더 높고 감가상각비도 높기 때문에 Hertz의 재정에 타격을 주고 있다고 경영진은 말했습니다.  “EV의 충돌 및 손상 수리는 내연 기관 차량에 비해 두 배 정도 소요되는 경우가 많습니다.” (링크)
    • 테슬라의 MSRP권장소비자가격 하락에 따른 허츠 보유 테슬라 차량의 감가상각비용 증가(링크)
    • GM을 비롯한 기타 [자동차 제조업체]에서는 수십 년에 걸쳐 광범위한 전국 부품 공급 네트워크를 구축해 왔다는 점을 기억하십시오.'” Hertz CEO Stephen Scherr는 최근 분석가와의 통화에서 이렇게 말했습니다. "테슬라의 맥락에서 볼 때 덜 성숙한 부품 애프터마켓이 분명히 있습니다."(링크)
  • 미국에서 슈퍼차저 사용비용은? 가솔린과 비교했을 때는?

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/auto-loans/cost-to-fill-up-ev
https://www.fmkorea.com/5624293773

높은 가격4: 매크로 환경 악화에 따른 고금리 영향

  • 전기 자동차는 내연 자동차보다 가격이 더 비쌉니다. 인센티브와 크레딧이 판매에 반영되기 전 가격이 30% 이상인 경우가 많습니다. 팬데믹 이후 경제로 인해 금리가 크게 상승하여 EV뿐만 아니라 모든 차량 판매가 둔화되었습니다. 그러나 동급 내연 차량보다 가격이 비싼 경향이 있기 때문에 EV는 매우 어려움을 겪고 있습니다 .(링크)

Early-Adapter pool 종료

  • 새로운 신흥 기술에서 흔히 볼 수 있듯이 첫 번째 구매자는 고소득 가구, 열성적인 기술 애호가, 환경에 관심이 있는 사람들이었습니다. 이는 소수의 소비자로만 구성된 특정 인구통계입니다. 다른 인구통계의 경우 채택 속도가 훨씬 느려질 것으로 예상됩니다. 자동차 제조업체는 덜 부유한 인구층에 접근하고 특히 내연기관 차량을 대체하는 차량으로 구매자를 대상으로 하기 위해 더 많은 보급형 모델을 설계해야 합니다.(링크)

불편한 제품력

인프라부족

https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/us-charging-network-rankings/

  • 사용 가능한 충전 포트의 대부분은 미국 전체 공공 충전 포트의 76%를 차지하는 레벨 2 충전기입니다. DC 고속 충전기는 약 23%를 차지하며, 이러한 고속 충전기의 대부분(63%)은 Tesla 네트워크에 있으므로 Tesla 운전자만 접근할 수 있습니다.
  • 2030년 미국 도로에 배치될 것으로 예상되는 2,600만 대의 EV를 지원하려면 약 1,290만 개의 충전 포트가 필요할 것입니다. 이는 가정 충전, 직장 충전 및 공공 시설이 혼합되어 74%(950만 포트)의 가정이 구성됩니다. S&P Global Mobility의 보고에 따르면 다가구 레벨 2 충전, 9%(120만 포트) 직장 레벨 2 충전, 16%(2백만 포트) 공용 레벨 2 충전, 1%(140,000 포트) 공용 DC 고속 충전이 있습니다. (링크)
  • 테슬라 이외 제3 충전소 시스템 구축 미비로 제대로된 관리 無 -> 고장난 급속 충전기가 너무 많다: 작년에 연구원들은 샌프란시스코 베이 지역의 모든 공공 고속 충전기를 방문하여 그 중 거의 23%가 "응답하지 않거나 사용할 수 없는 화면, 결제 시스템 오류, 충전 시작 오류, 네트워크 오류 또는 커넥터 파손"을 발견했습니다. 그리고 자동차 컨설팅 회사인 JD Power는 EV 운전자를 대상으로 한 조사에서 공공 충전 네트워크가 " 작동하지 않는 충전소로 가득 차 있다 "는 사실을 발견했습니다. 세션 5개 중 1개는 요금을 전달하지 못했습니다. 이러한 오류 중 거의 4분의 3은 오작동하거나 오프라인 상태인 스테이션과 관련이 있습니다.(링크)
    • 바이든, 급속 충전기 설치 위한 75억 달러 법안 마련 그러나 실행은?: 의회가 양당 인프라법에서 승인한 EV 충전 인프라에 75억 달러를 지출하기 때문에 이들의 네트워크 구축은 Biden 행정부의 최우선 과제입니다. 첫 번째 자금 조달 라운드는 주요 고속도로를 따라 50마일 간격으로 DCFC 충전기로 전국을 덮을 예정입니다.(링크)
    • Tesla가 아닌 다른 네트워크가 이러한 문제를 겪고 있는 이유는 공공 충전 시스템에 더 많은 행위자가 있기 때문입니다. 여기에는 자동차 제조업체, 충전 네트워크 운영업체, 경로 찾기 도구, 그리고 이제는 정부가 포함됩니다.
    • 키오스크의 금속 외피 내부에는 정교한 전력 전자 장치가 들어있습니다. 이 제품은 튼튼한 케이블과 커넥터를 통해 위험한 수준의 전류를 보냅니다. 커넥터는 껌 뭉치로 쉽게 비활성화할 수 있습니다. 가격, 충전 지속 시간 등 운전자에게 정보를 전달하는 데 중요한 비디오 화면이 손상되거나 파손될 수 있습니다. 운전자가 지불 카드를 탭하거나, 삽입하거나, 긁는 과정에서 많은 문제가 발생할 수 있습니다.... 전문가들은 이러한 데이터 부족이 주요 격차라고 말합니다. 현재 미국에는 독립적인 제3자 충전 데이터 소스가 존재하지 않습니다. 충전 네트워크에서 97%의 가동 시간을 달성한다고 주장하는 경우(많은 경우) 그 주장을 확인할 방법이 없습니다. (링크)
  • 75억불이나 쏟아붇는다는데, 해소될 기미가 안보이냐? 왜그러냐?
  • 트럼프되면 기존 정책 없어지냐?

중국 전기차 시장 규모는?

중국 차량 판매 대수: https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-china-by-month

 

중국 BEV 판매 대수: https://cnevpost.com/2023/07/11/china-nev-sales-806000-in-jun-caam/

 

  • '23년 중국 BEV 판매량 650만대 수준으로 전체 자동차 판매량 3,000만대 中 21.4%
    • 미국 '23년  BEV 판매량 118.4만대 대비 5.5배 高
    • 전체 차량 판매량 대비 전기차 판매 비율 미국 8.12% 대비 2.5배 이상 高

https://www.samsungpop.com/common.do?cmd=down&contentType=application/pdf&inlineYn=Y&saveKey=research.pdf&fileName=3020/2024011020312494K_02_05.pdf

중국 전기차 시장이 축소되는 원인은 무엇인가?

중국은 충전기 이슈 없는지? 왜다면 왜 없는지? 땅덩어리는 비슷하게 큰데

유럽 전기차 시장 규모는?

  • EU는 2025년 말까지 고속도로를 따라 60km마다 고속 충전소를 설치하도록 요구하는 새로운 법안을 통과시켰습니다.또한 이 법은 충전소가 상호 운용 가능해야 한다고 규정합니다. 즉, 제조업체에 관계없이 모든 전기 자동차에서 사용할 수 있습니다.(링크)

 

 

유럽 전기차 시장이 축소되는 원인은 무엇인가? (vs 내연기관 자동차 시장

http://hkconsensus.hankyung.com/apps.analysis/analysis.downpdf?report_idx=626456

  • 독일 정부가 배터리 전기차에 대해 지급해 오던 환경 보너스 3,000~4,500유로 지급을 2023년 12월 17일부로 중단한다고 발표했다. 이는 독일 헌법재판소가 지난 11월 기존 600억 유로의 기후변화 대책기금이 위헌으로 판단해 재원 확보가 어려워졌기 때문이라고 밝혔다. (링크)
  • 프랑스에서도 지난 12월 15일 EV 보조금 지불을 축소했다. 프랑스 정부는 테슬라 모델 3 등 중국산 배터리 전기차에 대해 5,000~7,000유로의 보조금 대상에서 제외로 하기로 결정했다. 이탈리아 정부도 같은 구조의 도입을 검토하고 있다. (링크)
    • 프랑스 정부 또한 지난 15일부터 중국이나 한국 등 아시아에서 생산한 전기차를 보조금 대상에서 제외한다고 발표했다. 여기에는 미국 테슬라 모델3와 한국 기아차의 니로와 쏘울 등이 제외됐다.(링크)

반대로 전기차 시장이 장래에는 더 클 수밖에 없는 이유는 무엇인가?

낮아지는 베터리 가격

  • 배터리 수요 공급
  • 중국의 베터리 초과 공급 시설 

더 많아지는 전기차 인프라

  • XXX

낮은 유지비

  • XXX

친환경 규제

  • 캘리포니아주는 다른 어떤 주보다 훨씬 앞서 2022년 8월에 자동차 소유자가 ICE에서 무배출 차량(ZEV)으로 전환하도록 강제하는 기본 규칙을 설정했습니다. 이 규정은 2026년에 차량 판매의 35%를 배출가스 제로로 규정하고 있으며, 2035년에는 100%로 증가합니다. (링크)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-trump-victory-impact-us-ev-policy-levi-tillemann-0okxf

더 나은 제품력

  • 주행거리 김, 자량 조용함, 더 넓음 등..

경쟁분석

테슬라의 지역별 매출 규모 추세

capital iq revenue by segment

테슬라의 미국 매출 규모 추이

테슬라의 미국내 주별 매출 규모

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/tesla-sales-by-state

미국 전기차 시장 주요 경쟁사 시장 쉐어 및 실적

https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales
전기차 브랜드 월별 점유율: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales

 

  • 경쟁격화에 따라 테슬라의 점유율 '21년 1분기 70.9 % > '23년 4분기 50.9%까지 하락

테슬라의 중국 매출 규모 추이

https://tridenstechnology.com/ko/%ED%85%8C%EC%8A%AC%EB%9D%BC-%ED%8C%90%EB%A7%A4-%ED%86%B5%EA%B3%84/

중국 전기차 시장 주요 경쟁사 시장 쉐어 및 실적

https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/10/automakers-nev-market-share-in-china-in-2023/

  • 중국 내 점유율 9% 남짓에도 불구 판매량 60만대로 미국 64만대 대비 큰 차이 無

테슬라의 유럽 매출 규모 추이

유럽 전기차 시장 주요 경쟁사 시장 쉐어 및 실적

테슬라의 전기차는 경쟁사보다 어떤 점이 우위인가?

KBF 측면

가격

  • 메가 캐스트 통한 노동비 감소

From scratch 설계

  • 기존 주류 내연 기관 플레이어들의 설계와는 다른 효율적 설계
    • 기존 플레이어들은 이미 구축해 놓은 벨류체인 활용 위해 획기적인 설계 변화 하지 못함

제어기술

  • 무게배분 기술



 

자율주행

  • 현재 자율주행 기술은 어디까지 왔고, 테슬라는 어디있나?
  • 국가별 완전자율주행이 법적으로 검토되지 않은 국가는 어디인가?
  • 도조 컴퓨팅 '23년 7월부터 작동 800만

급속 충전 인프라

  • 미국에서는 테슬라 슈퍼 차져 비중 높아 테슬라 유저 아니면 급속충전 사용 불가: The problems are experienced by those who use fast chargers on the go and who aren’t driving Teslas.(링크)
    • 전문가들은 Tesla가 성공할 수 있었던 가장 큰 이유는 Tesla가 전체 생태계와 모든 데이터를 소유하고 통제하기 때문이라고 말합니다. 자동차를 만들고, 충전기를 운영하고, 결제를 관리합니다. 역에서 무언가 고장이 나면 수리하는 것이 Tesla의 임무입니다. 누가 책임이 있는지 의심할 여지가 없습니다. (링크)
    • 타 브랜드도 테슬라 슈퍼차지 사용 가능하도록 변환 어댑터 판매: 포드는 2025년부터 북미에서 테슬라 스타일의 충전 소켓을 탑재한 신형 EV를 판매할 계획이다. 약 1년 반의 공백을 메우기 위해 테슬라는 포드의 머스탱 마하-E, F-150 라이트닝, E용 어댑터를 개발했다. - Tesla의 NACS 커넥터에서 Tesla가 아닌 대다수 EV에서 볼 수 있는 CCS 커넥터로 EV를 이동합니다. Twitter Spaces의 기자 회견에서 Elon Musk는 어댑터의 가격이 "수백 달러"이며 "비용이 엄청나지 않을 것"이라고 주장했습니다. (링크)
  • 테슬라는 슈퍼 차져 충전소 설치에 대한 어떠한 플랜을 갖고 있는가? 얼마나 더 설치할 건가?

KSF 측면

기가캐스팅

  • XX

중앙 집중형에서 로컬화된 마이크컨트롤러 유닛

  • 와이어링 하네스 감소에 따른 비용 감소 > 무게감소
  • 와이어링 하네스 감소에 따른 설치 인건비 감소

엑소스켈레톤

  • XX

도장공정삭제

  • XX

도장공정 삭제에 따른 로봇 자동화 가능 프로세스 증가

  • XX

 

경쟁사 대비 우위성을 지키기 위해 테슬라는 어떤 역량과 자산을 내재화하였는가?

  • 기가팩토리 내 설비를 보면 대부분 해결될 듯
  • 도조

기업분석

테슬라의 기본 재무정보

매출, 영업이익, 순이익, EBITDA
영업이익률, 순이익률, EBITDA 률
원가, 영업비, 연구비
자산 및 부채, 캐쉬
capex, 감가상각
EV/EBITDA 멀티플 high ~ low
시가 총액 및 주가
ROE

[참고] 도요타 재무 정보 for peer comp

테슬라 생산 시설 및 캐파

https://steadyworker.co.kr/%ED%85%8C%EC%8A%AC%EB%9D%BC-%EC%83%9D%EC%82%B0%EB%9F%89-%EC%A0%84%EA%B8%B0%EC%B0%A8-%EC%8B%9C%EC%9E%A5%EC%A0%90%EC%9C%A0%EC%9C%A8-%EB%B6%84%EC%84%9D/
https://backlinko.com/tesla-stats

멕시코 공장

  • 24년3월 9일(현지시각) 테슬라 전문지 테슬라라티에 따르면 멕시코 북부에 위치한 누에보 네온주 당국은 2023년 연말에 테슬라 기가팩토리의 입구로 연결될 도로공사를 시작했다. 테슬라는 공장 설계 작업을 하고 있는 것으로 전해졌다. 멕시코 환경자원부(SEMARNAT)는 2023년 12월12일 테슬라 공장 부지에 토지사용 허가를 승인했다.
  • 테슬라는 멕시코에 45억 달러(약 5조9455억 원) 규모의 전기차 공장을 신설한다고 작년 2월 발표했다. 테슬라라티에 따르면 누에보 레온 주에서 보조금으로 1억5300만 달러(약 2021억 원)를 제공한다.
  • 일론 머스크 테슬라 최고경영자(CEO)는 2023년 12월에 진행한 한 인터뷰를 통해 “멕시코 공장에서 2026년부터 사이버트럭을 포함한 차량들을 양산할 계획”이라고 밝힌 적이 있다.(링크)

 

인도공장

  • 글로벌 전기차 기업이 인도에 공장을 설립하는 등 대규모 투자를 단행한다면 전기차에 대한 수입 관세를 인하하기로 인도 정부가 약속했다.
  • “현지 공장 설립을 약속하는 글로벌 전기차 기업은 5년간 전기차에 대한 수입 관세를 15%로 감면받을 수 있다”고 밝혔다. 단 415억 루피(약 5억 달러, 6650억원) 이상의 투자를 단행하고 3년 이내 인도 내 공장에서 전기차를 생산하기 시작할 경우로 한정한다. 조건을 충족할 경우 해당 해외 기업은 3만 5000달러 이상의 전기차에 대해 5년간 15%로 감면된 세금을 적용받을 수 있다.
  • 인도의 전기차 수입 관세율은 4만 달러 이상 차량에 대해 100%, 나머지 가격대는 70%에 이른다. (링크)

 

성장가설

기존사업: 자동차

테슬라는 어떤 지역으로의 확장 가능성이 존재하는가?

  • 국가별 테슬라 점유율
  • 미국내 주별 침투율
    • 주별 보조금, 지방정부 재정건전성
  • 응. 예를 들어 일본처럼 시장 점유율이 현저히 낮은 지역도 있습니다. 이제 우리는 슈퍼차저가 올바른 위치에 있는지, 서비스 센터가 있는지, 제품이 일본에서 잘 작동하는지 확인해야 합니다. 일본은 세계에서 세 번째로 큰 자동차 시장입니다.  ('23 4Q 어닝콜)

향후 어떤 자동차의 라인업을 확대할 것인가?

  • 사이버트럭, 모델S, 모델Y 등 라인업별 매출 규모
  • 소형자동차 라인업 25년 후반기부터 생산 예정 ('23 4Q 어닝콜)
  • 모델2로 불리는 테슬라 새로운 저가 전기차 모델의 최상위 시나리오는 2026년 50만대 수준”이라는 의견을 제시
  • 앞서 일론 머스크 테슬라 최고경영자(CEO)는 1월 실적발표 콘퍼런스콜에서 “우리는 차세대 저가 차량 개발에서 매우 진척된 상태”며 이 차를 텍사스 공장에서 내년 하반기부터 생산할 예정이라고 밝혔다.
  • 에버코어에 따르면 모델2는 자재 명세서(bill of materials) 금액이 2만8000달러(약 3679만원)에서 2만달러(약 2628만원)로 낮아지며, 주행거리는 402㎞이 될 것으로 보인다.(링크)

전후방 사업: 에너지 저장 사업

  • 현재 12GW 규모 태양광 패널 보유  ('23 4Q 어닝콜)
    -> 이정도면 의미잇는 숫자인가?
    -> 전기팔아서 돈벌겠다는 건가?
  • Lathrop(도시이름)은 2024년까지 계속해서 성장하고 있으며, 두 번째 최종 조립 라인을 가동하여 연말까지 용량을 20에서 40기가와트시로 두 배로 늘립니다.

전후방 사업: FSD 라이센스 판매 사업

FSD 산업의 현재 스텝은?

- 올해 안에는 그것이 분명해질 것이라고 생각합니다. 그리고 제가 다른 자동차 회사의 CEO라면 분명히 Tesla에 전화해서 Tesla의 완전 자율주행 기술 라이선스를 요청했을 것이라는 점을 강조하고 싶습니다. 확실히 현명한 움직임입니다.  ('23 4Q 어닝콜)

 

FSD 구독 비율은?

 

FSD 만 시스템으로 떼서 팔아먹는게 가능할까?

- 테슬라와 동일한 위치에 카메라가 위치해야하는 것 아닌가?

 

전후방 사업: 로보택시 산업

  • XXX

신규 사업: 테슬라의 로봇사업

  • XXX

 

그 외 질문

미중 갈등에 따라 중국에서 테슬라를 배척할 가능성은?

 

 

 

 

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